1 The Department of Biology, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, 27599-3280 USA
2 The Department of Biology, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, 02215 USA
3 Integral Consulting Inc., Annapolis, Maryland 21401 USA
*Corresponding author: colleenbove@gmail.com
Abstract text will go here
Citation will go here
## OGR data source with driver: ESRI Shapefile
## Source: "/Users/colleen/Dropbox/Git/CaribbeanSST/data/EcoRegions", layer: "Caribbean_ecoregions"
## with 17 features
## It has 9 fields
Caribbean coral reef site locations and ecoregion designation. The colour of each reef represents the designated ecoregion (Spalding et al. 2010) and n denotes the number of unique reefs within that ecoregion.
Historic SST trend on Caribbean coral reefs (1871–2020). Long-term SST records (HadISST) on Caribbean coral reefs depicting A) mean monthly SST each year (represented by line colour: blue to red) and B) GAM smoothed annual mean SST time (black line), annual maximum (red line), and annual minimum (blue line) SST. The grey dashed horizontal line denotes the overall mean SST for all sites over the entire period (27.3 °C) and the grey ribbon represents the 95% confidence interval around the true annual SST mean through time.
Historic SST trends on coral reefs within ecoregions (1871–2019). Long-term SST records (HadISST) on Caribbean coral reefs separated by ecoregion depicting GAM smoothed annual mean SST time (black line), annual maximum (red line), and annual minimum (blue line) SST. The grey dashed horizontal line denotes the mean SST over the entire period and the grey ribbon represents the 95% confidence interval around the true annual SST mean for each ecoregion.
Historic SST trend on Caribbean coral reefs (1871–2020). Long-term SST records (HadISST) on Caribbean coral reefs depicting significant changes in warming rate based on the first derivative of the GAM modelled slope. The GAM smoothed annual mean SST time is represented by the black line with significantly positive (red) or negative (blue) identified over the curve. The most recent significant warming event began in 1987 and is highlighted in the yellow box. The annual maximum (red line) and annual minimum (blue line) SST are also depicted, along with the overall mean SST for all sites over the entire period (27.3 °C; grey dashed line). The grey ribbon represents the 95% confidence interval around the true annual SST mean through time.
Historic SST records (1981-2019; Pathfinder) on Caribbean coral reefs depicting A) mean monthly SST each year (represented by line colour: blue to red) and B) GAM smoothed annual mean SST time (black line), annual maximum (red line), and annual minimum (blue line) SST. The grey dashed horizontal line denotes the overall mean SST for all sites over the entire period (27.23 °C) and the grey ribbon represents the 95% confidence interval around the true annual SST mean through time.
Comparison of HadISST (1871-2020) and Pathfinder (1981-2019) SST recorded on Caribbean coral reef locations. The high-resolution Pathfinder is represented as darker data over the long-term HadISST. Both datasets are represented by GAM smoothed annual mean SST time (solid line), annual maximum (red line), and annual minimum (blue line) SST. The dashed horizontal line denotes the overall mean SST for all sites over the entire period and the grey ribbon represents the 95% confidence interval around the true annual SST mean through time.
Historic SST trends on coral reefs within Caribbean ecoregions (1871 - 2020) with corresponding reef locations (see Figures 1, 3 in the main text). The colour of each reef location and box around long-term SST (HadISST) plots represent the designated ecoregion. Plots depict SST data with GAM smoothed annual mean SST time (black line), annual maximum (red line), and annual minimum (blue line) SST. The grey dashed horizontal line denotes the mean SST over the entire period and the grey ribbon represents the 95% confidence interval around the true annual SST mean for the A) Bahamian, B) Eastern Caribbean, C) Floridian, D) Greater Antilles, E) Gulf of Mexico, F) Southern Caribbean, G) Southwestern Caribbean, and H) Western Caribbean ecoregions.