Colleen B. Bove1,2*, Laura Mudge1,3, and John F. Bruno1

1 The Department of Biology, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, 27599-3280 USA

2 The Department of Biology, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, 02215 USA

3 Integral Consulting Inc., Annapolis, Maryland 21401 USA

*Corresponding author: colleenbove@gmail.com


Abstract:

Abstract text will go here


Citation:

Citation will go here


Caribbean Ecoregion Coral Reefs

Figure 1

## OGR data source with driver: ESRI Shapefile 
## Source: "/Users/colleen/Dropbox/Git/CaribbeanSST/data/EcoRegions", layer: "Caribbean_ecoregions"
## with 17 features
## It has 9 fields

Caribbean coral reef site locations and ecoregion designation. The colour of each reef represents the designated ecoregion (Spalding et al. 2010) and n denotes the number of unique reefs within that ecoregion.


SST Extraction and Analysis

Figure 2

Historic SST trend on Caribbean coral reefs (1871–2020). Long-term SST records (HadISST) on Caribbean coral reefs depicting A) mean monthly SST each year (represented by line colour: blue to red) and B) GAM smoothed annual mean SST time (black line), annual maximum (red line), and annual minimum (blue line) SST. The grey dashed horizontal line denotes the overall mean SST for all sites over the entire period (27.3 °C) and the grey ribbon represents the 95% confidence interval around the true annual SST mean through time.


Figure 3

Historic SST trends on coral reefs within ecoregions (1871–2019). Long-term SST records (HadISST) on Caribbean coral reefs separated by ecoregion depicting GAM smoothed annual mean SST time (black line), annual maximum (red line), and annual minimum (blue line) SST. The grey dashed horizontal line denotes the mean SST over the entire period and the grey ribbon represents the 95% confidence interval around the true annual SST mean for each ecoregion.


Figure S2

Historic SST trend on Caribbean coral reefs (1871–2020). Long-term SST records (HadISST) on Caribbean coral reefs depicting significant changes in warming rate based on the first derivative of the GAM modelled slope. The GAM smoothed annual mean SST time is represented by the black line with significantly positive (red) or negative (blue) identified over the curve. The most recent significant warming event began in 1987 and is highlighted in the yellow box. The annual maximum (red line) and annual minimum (blue line) SST are also depicted, along with the overall mean SST for all sites over the entire period (27.3 °C; grey dashed line). The grey ribbon represents the 95% confidence interval around the true annual SST mean through time.


Figure S3

Historic SST records (1981-2019; Pathfinder) on Caribbean coral reefs depicting A) mean monthly SST each year (represented by line colour: blue to red) and B) GAM smoothed annual mean SST time (black line), annual maximum (red line), and annual minimum (blue line) SST. The grey dashed horizontal line denotes the overall mean SST for all sites over the entire period (27.23 °C) and the grey ribbon represents the 95% confidence interval around the true annual SST mean through time.


Figure S4

Comparison of HadISST (1871-2020) and Pathfinder (1981-2019) SST recorded on Caribbean coral reef locations. The high-resolution Pathfinder is represented as darker data over the long-term HadISST. Both datasets are represented by GAM smoothed annual mean SST time (solid line), annual maximum (red line), and annual minimum (blue line) SST. The dashed horizontal line denotes the overall mean SST for all sites over the entire period and the grey ribbon represents the 95% confidence interval around the true annual SST mean through time.


Figure S5

Historic SST trends on coral reefs within Caribbean ecoregions (1871 - 2020) with corresponding reef locations (see Figures 1, 3 in the main text). The colour of each reef location and box around long-term SST (HadISST) plots represent the designated ecoregion. Plots depict SST data with GAM smoothed annual mean SST time (black line), annual maximum (red line), and annual minimum (blue line) SST. The grey dashed horizontal line denotes the mean SST over the entire period and the grey ribbon represents the 95% confidence interval around the true annual SST mean for the A) Bahamian, B) Eastern Caribbean, C) Floridian, D) Greater Antilles, E) Gulf of Mexico, F) Southern Caribbean, G) Southwestern Caribbean, and H) Western Caribbean ecoregions.


HadISST GIF

Long-term SST records (HadISST) on Caribbean coral reefs depicting mean monthly SST each year (represented by line colour: blue to red).


Caribbean Basin Maps and Marine Heatwaves

Figure 4

Warming patterns throughout the Caribbean Sea. Increasing warming events across the Caribbean depicted through A) rate of SST change (°C per decade) from 1981 to 2019 (Pathfinder; mean slope 0.23 ± 0.087 °C per decade) and B) increasing marine heatwave events (slope of counts per year). Grey ocean area was not included in these analyses.


Figure 5

Need to add MHW metrics here


Figure S6

Significance of A) rate of SST change (°C per decade) and B) number of marine heatwave events per year across the Caribbean depicted in Figure 4. Grey ocean area was not included in these analyses.


Figure S7

A) Rate of SST change (°C per decade) over the duration of the HadISST database across the Caribbean from 1871 to 2020 (mean slope 0.04 ± 0.014 °C per decade) and B) significance of rate of SST change. Grey ocean area was not included in these analyses.


Figure S8

A) Rate of SST change (°C per decade) across the Caribbean from 1981 to 2020 (HadISST; mean slope 0.17 ± 0.046 °C per decade) and B) significance of rate of SST change. Grey ocean area was not included in these analyses.


Supplemental Tables

Table S1

Table S1. Marine heatwave properties examined in this study

Metric Units Description
Frequency Number of events Number of discrete mhw events
Total MHW days days The total number of days a location experienced a MHW per year
Duration days The number of days between the start and end date of each distinct MHW event
Peak intensity °C The maximum temperature, above the seasonal varying climatological mean, reached during the MHW event
Onset rate °C/day “Rate of temperature change between onset date and date of peak intensity”
Return time days The number of days elapsed since a previous mhw event in that location

Table S2

Table S2. Calculated warming rates from both HadISST and Pathfinder databases for different temporal ranges.

Temperature parameter HadISST (1871-2020) HadISST (1981-2020) HadISST (1987-2020) Pathfinder (1981-2019) Pathfinder (1987-2019)
Caribbean Basin (°C per decade) 0.04 0.17 0.18 0.23 NA
Caribbean Basin (total °C for period) 0.60 0.68 0.61 0.90 NA
Caribbean Reefs (°C per decade) 0.04 0.15 0.16 0.19 0.2
Caribbean Reefs (total °C for period) 0.60 0.60 0.54 0.74 0.66

Table S3

Table S3. Mean ocean warming rate (°C per decade; with 95% confidence interval) and total increase in temperature (°C) on coral reefs within each Caribbean ecoregion since the noted year of inflection point. The inflection point for each ecoregion was identified as the year in which annual warming rates noticeably increased based on the GAM smoothed annual means (see Figures 3 and S4). Years indicated with an asterisk (*) represent inflection points identified for ecoregions that occurred before the Pathfinder dataset record, therefore those rates and total warming values were calculated from the beginning of the record in 1981.

Ecoregion Inflection point Mean rate (°C per decade) Lower confidence interval Upper confidence interval Warming extent (°C)
Bahamian 1988 0.17 0.161 0.182 0.53
Eastern Caribbean 1984 0.26 0.260 0.267 0.91
Floridian 1993 0.22 0.207 0.231 0.57
Greater Antilles 1986 0.16 0.160 0.168 0.53
Gulf of Mexico 1981 0.21 0.186 0.241 0.80
Southern Caribbean 1981 0.26 0.258 0.268 0.99
Southwestern Caribbean 1982 0.20 0.194 0.204 0.74
Western Caribbean 1999 0.24 0.235 0.253 0.48

Session information

All code was written by Colleen B. Bove, feel free to contact with questions.

Session information from the last run date on 2021-04-03:

## R version 3.5.1 (2018-07-02)
## Platform: x86_64-apple-darwin15.6.0 (64-bit)
## Running under: macOS High Sierra 10.13.6
## 
## Matrix products: default
## BLAS: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/3.5/Resources/lib/libRblas.0.dylib
## LAPACK: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/3.5/Resources/lib/libRlapack.dylib
## 
## locale:
## [1] en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/C/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8
## 
## attached base packages:
## [1] splines   grid      stats     graphics  grDevices utils     datasets 
## [8] methods   base     
## 
## other attached packages:
##  [1] gridExtra_2.3       repmis_0.5          kableExtra_1.1.0   
##  [4] plotly_4.9.2.2      foreach_1.4.4       mgcv_1.8-28        
##  [7] nlme_3.1-140        gganimate_1.0.6     fields_10.3        
## [10] maps_3.3.0          spam_2.2-2          dotCall64_1.0-0    
## [13] binr_1.1            RColorBrewer_1.1-2  xts_0.12-0         
## [16] zoo_1.8-6           rnaturalearth_0.1.0 forcats_0.4.0      
## [19] stringr_1.4.0       dplyr_1.0.2         purrr_0.3.3        
## [22] readr_1.3.1         tidyr_1.0.0         tibble_2.1.3       
## [25] tidyverse_1.3.0     cowplot_1.0.0       rgdal_1.4-4        
## [28] maptools_0.9-5      viridis_0.5.1       viridisLite_0.3.0  
## [31] raster_2.9-23       sp_1.3-1            ggrepel_0.8.1      
## [34] ggplot2_3.3.2       ncdf4_1.16.1        sf_0.8-1           
## [37] prettydoc_0.3.0    
## 
## loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
##  [1] colorspace_1.4-1        ellipsis_0.3.0         
##  [3] class_7.3-15            fs_1.3.1               
##  [5] rstudioapi_0.13         farver_2.0.1           
##  [7] fansi_0.4.1             lubridate_1.7.4        
##  [9] xml2_1.2.2              codetools_0.2-16       
## [11] R.methodsS3_1.8.1       knitr_1.25             
## [13] jsonlite_1.6.1          Cairo_1.5-10           
## [15] broom_0.5.2             dbplyr_1.4.2           
## [17] R.oo_1.24.0             rgeos_0.4-3            
## [19] shiny_1.4.0             compiler_3.5.1         
## [21] httr_1.4.2              backports_1.1.5        
## [23] fastmap_1.0.1           assertthat_0.2.1       
## [25] Matrix_1.2-17           lazyeval_0.2.2         
## [27] cli_2.2.0               later_1.0.0            
## [29] tweenr_1.0.1            htmltools_0.4.0        
## [31] prettyunits_1.0.2       tools_3.5.1            
## [33] gtable_0.3.0            glue_1.4.2             
## [35] rnaturalearthdata_0.1.0 Rcpp_1.0.3             
## [37] cellranger_1.1.0        vctrs_0.3.6            
## [39] transformr_0.1.1        crosstalk_1.0.0        
## [41] iterators_1.0.10        xfun_0.8               
## [43] rvest_0.3.5             lpSolve_5.6.15         
## [45] mime_0.7                lifecycle_0.2.0        
## [47] scales_1.1.0            promises_1.1.0         
## [49] hms_0.5.3               yaml_2.2.1             
## [51] stringi_1.4.5           highr_0.8              
## [53] e1071_1.7-2             rlang_0.4.10           
## [55] pkgconfig_2.0.3         evaluate_0.14          
## [57] lattice_0.20-41         htmlwidgets_1.5.3      
## [59] labeling_0.3            tidyselect_1.1.0       
## [61] plyr_1.8.5              magrittr_1.5           
## [63] R6_2.4.1                magick_2.2             
## [65] generics_0.0.2          DBI_1.0.0              
## [67] pillar_1.4.3            haven_2.2.0            
## [69] foreign_0.8-71          withr_2.3.0            
## [71] units_0.6-3             modelr_0.1.5           
## [73] crayon_1.3.4            KernSmooth_2.23-15     
## [75] rmarkdown_1.16          progress_1.2.2         
## [77] readxl_1.3.1            data.table_1.12.2      
## [79] reprex_0.3.0            digest_0.6.25          
## [81] classInt_0.4-2          webshot_0.5.1          
## [83] xtable_1.8-4            R.cache_0.14.0         
## [85] httpuv_1.5.2            R.utils_2.10.1         
## [87] munsell_0.5.0